Mega Millions odds: your chances in every prize tier

Where 1 in 290,472,336 comes from

There are 12,103,014 different ways to choose five white balls from 70, since the order doesn't matter. Each of them can be combined with any of the 24 Mega Balls. Multiply the two and you get 290,472,336 possible combinations, only one of which wins the jackpot.

Every combination has exactly the same chance, whether it's 1-2-3-4-5 with Mega Ball 6 or a Quick Pick. There's no way to pick numbers that are more likely to be drawn.

Odds for every prize tier

The same logic gives the odds of every tier: count the combinations that produce each result and divide the total by that number.

A curious detail: matching three white balls (1 in 607) is a little more likely than matching two plus the Mega Ball (1 in 665), and both pay the same. What each tier pays is in Mega Millions prizes.

Winning any prize: 1 in 23.07

Add up all the winning combinations and you get 12,588,912 out of 290,472,336: odds of 1 in 23.07 of winning something with each play.

Most of those wins come from the Mega Ball. Matching only the Mega Ball, or one white ball plus the Mega Ball, accounts for about 92% of all winning combinations. And since the smallest prize is $10, every win pays more than the $5 you spent on the play.

The multiplier's odds

The multiplier doesn't change your chances of winning a tier, only how much you're paid. Its own odds are:

Combining both, the odds of the top non-jackpot prize, $10 million for five white balls with a 10X, are 1 in 404,135,424. More in the Mega Millions multiplier.

The old game and the new one

When the Mega Ball pool went from 25 to 24 numbers in April 2025, the odds improved slightly:

Every earlier version of the game, with its odds, is in Mega Millions historical changes.

Does buying more tickets help?

Each extra play adds exactly one more combination. Ten different plays give you odds of 10 in 290,472,336 for the jackpot, still about 1 in 29 million. Buying every possible combination would cost more than $1.45 billion.

Joining an office pool works the same way: the group covers more combinations, but any prize is split among its members. How to set one up properly is in Mega Millions tips.

Compared with Powerball

Powerball's jackpot odds are 1 in 292,201,338 and its odds of winning any prize are 1 in 24.87, so the two games are very close. The rest of the differences are in Mega Millions vs Powerball.

Most common Mega Millions numbers

Which numbers have come up most often changes with every drawing, so you'll find them up to date on our statistics page: the most and least drawn white balls and Mega Balls for the period you choose. What those figures can and can't tell you is explained in how to read Mega Millions statistics. Whatever they show, every combination has the same 1 in 290,472,336 chance in the next drawing.

What these numbers mean in practice

Playing one line in every drawing, 104 drawings a year, you'd expect to win a prize four or five times a year, almost always one of the smaller ones. At that rate, the average wait for the jackpot would be about 2.8 million years.

The odds are the same in every drawing and every state, and they don't depend on the size of the jackpot or on past results. Half of all Mega Millions sales is paid back to players in prizes. That's why it makes sense to play for fun, with an amount you've decided in advance. More in responsible play.

Frequently asked questions